Prediction Markets
Trade on the outcome of real-world events with Bicoince prediction markets.
How do Bicoince prediction markets pay out?
They are pari-mutuel, not an order book and not an automated market maker. Every stake on a market goes into one pool, and when the market resolves the whole pool is split among the winning side in proportion to what each person staked, minus a small protocol fee. Nobody takes the other side of your bet individually — you are sharing a pot.
Where do the odds come from?
From the money already staked, not from a bookmaker. The implied probability of an outcome is that side pool divided by the total pool, so the more money sits on a side the shorter its implied odds become and the less each winner takes from the same pot. Staking early on a side that later attracts money is what improves your share.
Can I cancel or sell a prediction stake?
No. Your stake moves into the market pool the moment you place it and cannot be cancelled, and there is no secondary market to sell the position into. Treat the amount as committed until the market resolves, and size it on that basis.
Who decides the outcome of a market?
In this build an operator resolves the market against the stated event, and the resolution is what triggers the payout split. A decentralised oracle with a dispute window is the production design rather than what is running today, so the honest description is that resolution is administered rather than trustless.
